A recent New York Times and Siena College poll has sent shockwaves through Democratic circles, showing former President Donald Trump leading President Joe Biden in five critical swing states. Here’s the full story.
The Lead
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The poll shows Trump leading in the states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania.
Biden is only ahead in Wisconsin by 2 percentage points, and he won all six states in the 2020 election.
Tipping Point
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Democratic strategist James Carville referred to this poll as a “tipping point” for Democrats and said, “The poll is totally unsurprising.”
He shared the need for more data and said, “I would not consider voting for Biden and, alternatively, I would not consider voting for Trump.”
Biden’s Approval Ratings Have Reached Record Lows
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Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg acknowledged that there was work to be done in the lead-up to the 2024 election but added that they were not panicking.
Biden’s approval ratings have reached record lows, with his Gallup approval rating standing at 37% a year ahead of the election.
The Reasons
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The decline in Biden’s approval ratings began with the chaotic U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, concerns about the economy, rising inflation, verbal gaffes, and mounting worries about his age, making him the oldest American president ever elected.
An Alternative Candidate
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Additionally, a poll earlier in the year indicated that only 37% of Democrats wanted Biden to seek a second term, with many seeking an alternative candidate.
Other Democratic strategists have joined the chorus of concern.
Anti-MAGA Majority
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Dan Pfeiffer, a former Obama adviser, advised Democrats to take the results seriously and suggested that Trump was now the “slight favorite” to win in 2024.
He also shared the need to reconstitute the anti-MAGA majority and persuade voters who had drifted away since 2020.
2024 Election Is in Great Trouble
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The poll’s findings revealed that Trump had made inroads among younger, Black, and Hispanic voters, key demographics for Democrats.
Democratic Representative Pramila Jayapal of Washington said, “This is the first time… that I have felt like the 2024 election is in great trouble for the president and for our Democratic control, which is essential to moving forward.”
Not Good for Predicting Results
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Jim Messina, an Obama adviser, wrote on Twitter, “Can’t believe we’re doing this again so soon. Polls this early are good for clicks and tweets, not good for predicting results.”
The Economy Is Clearly Improving
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Larry Sabato, the director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, wrote, “For those moaning about the latest NYTimes/Siena Poll: –Election is a full year away. –Biden’s likely opponent faces 91 counts in multiple jurisdictions. -The economy is clearly improving, but it takes many months for voters to perceive and believe it. Keep calm. Carry on.”
A Very, Very Difficult Race
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Donna Brazile, a former chair of the Democratic National Committee, said, “’I would say a wake-up call once again for Democrats to be reminded that they have to go back out there, pull the coalition that allowed Joe Biden to break new ground in 2020, especially in Arizona and Georgia, but more importantly to bring back that coalition. Without that coalition, it’s going to be a very, very difficult race.”
The Public Expressed Their Views
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Several commenters shared their thoughts on the incident.
One commenter wrote, “What does that have to do with Biden thrashing him in another election? Polls don’t vote!! That is what happens when you do your polls at Trump’s rallies.”
People Want Strong Leaders
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Another user added, “Biden is weak and it shows in our country’s policies. We are a nation on the decline. Trump’s lead in the swing states shows that people want strong leadership and a return to where America is first.”
The Upcoming Election Will Be the Same
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A third commented, “Does it really matter? The states are letting the Democrats control the voting stations anyhow. The upcoming election will be the same as the last.”
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